PREDIKSI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI KOTA MALANG DENGAN MODEL ARIMA

Economic growth is a key indicator to evaluate the economic performance of a region. However, conventional methods are often ineffective in providing accurate projections of regional economic growth. This study aims to predict the economic growth rate in Malang City using data mining techniques with the ARIMA model. The ARIMA model is employed to forecast economic growth, government spending realization, poverty rate, open unemployment rate, human development index (HDI), and school participation rate (SPR). The initial test results with the ARIMA (1,0,1) model show moderate accuracy, with an RMSE value of 2.606, MAE of 0.372, a high MAPE, and a negative R² value. Despite its limitations, the model provides an initial overview of significant factors affecting economic growth, such as government spending realization, poverty rate, unemployment rate, HDI, and SPR. These factors reveal that an increase in government spending and HDI positively contributes to economic growth, while high poverty and unemployment rates remain the main obstacles.